SOL Breaks Below $100 as Broader Crypto Deleverages
Solana's native token SOL fell below $100 on February 2, 2026, touching approximately $97 and marking its lowest price in nine months. The token has declined roughly 60% from its mid-September highs, caught in a broader crypto deleveraging cycle triggered by hawkish Federal Reserve signals and a $1.7 billion institutional fund selloff.
The drop breached the psychologically important $100 level that previously held as support in April 2025. SOL shed 20% in a single week and 25% over the month, with $31.7 million exiting SOL-focused funds as part of the broader institutional retreat.
What makes this selloff unusual is not the price action itself. It is what is happening underneath it.
2.2 Billion Transactions per Week and Growing
While SOL's price charts paint a bearish picture, Solana's on-chain metrics tell a completely different story. The network is processing approximately 2.2 billion transactions per week, more than any other Layer-1 blockchain. Only Internet Computer (ICP) comes close at 2.6 billion, while BNB Chain manages roughly 108 million and Tron handles about 62 million.
User activity follows a similar pattern. Solana averages 16.7 million weekly active addresses, surpassing Near Protocol (15.6 million) and BNB Chain (just under 15 million). These are not idle wallets. They represent real users executing real transactions on a network that has never been busier.
The stablecoin picture is equally striking. Solana's stablecoin supply hit $15.65 billion as of mid-January 2026, tripling from approximately $5 billion at the end of 2024. The network added nearly $1.3 billion in new stablecoin supply in just seven days, according to Artemis data, representing the largest stablecoin inflow among all major blockchains during that period.
Perhaps most telling: stablecoin turnover on Solana now significantly outpaces Ethereum, driven by sub-cent gas fees that make high-frequency, low-cost transactions viable at scale.
The Memecoin-to-Micropayment Thesis
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick trimmed his 2026 SOL price forecast to $250 from $310 in response to the selloff. But he simultaneously raised his 2030 target to $2,000, a roughly 20x increase from current levels.
The reasoning centers on Solana's evolution beyond its memecoin-driven reputation. Kendrick argues the network is becoming core infrastructure for stablecoin-based micropayments, a use case where Solana's speed and cost advantages create a genuine competitive moat.
His revised price targets paint a steady recovery curve: $250 by end of 2026, $400 in 2027, $700 in 2028, $1,200 in 2029, and $2,000 by 2030. Whether those targets hold depends on one critical question: can Solana convert its massive transaction throughput into sustainable fee revenue?
Institutional Signals Point Both Ways
The institutional picture is nuanced. On one hand, $31.7 million flowed out of SOL funds last week, and open interest declined 22.8% month-over-month, suggesting long positions are unwinding rather than shorts attacking.
On the other hand, the Bitwise BSOL ETF has absorbed 78% of all net inflows into SOL-related ETFs since October 2025. Over 1% of total SOL supply is now under ETF management, and digital asset treasuries hold nearly 3% of all SOL. Whale addresses have been moving tens of millions in SOL off exchanges, a pattern that typically signals long-term accumulation rather than preparation to sell.
This split, short-term institutional selling alongside long-term institutional accumulation, is the defining tension of SOL's current market position.
The Value Capture Problem
The 21Shares research team identified what may be Solana's biggest challenge going forward: the gap between network usage and economic value captured by SOL holders.
Solana processed roughly $1.5 trillion in transaction volume in 2025 but generated an estimated $600 million in protocol fees, a take rate of approximately 0.04%. If settlement volume does not translate into meaningful fee growth, Solana risks becoming a low-margin settlement rail, high throughput, high activity, but limited value flowing back to token holders.
The debate is no longer whether Solana can scale. That question is settled. The question is whether the economic architecture converts usage into durable value for SOL investors. The share of non-traditional, newer stablecoins on Solana grew from 4.4% in January 2025 to 23.7% in January 2026, suggesting the ecosystem is diversifying. But diversification and value capture are different things entirely.
What Crypto Users Should Watch
For crypto card holders and everyday Solana users, the divergence has practical implications. SOL-denominated rewards from cards like Phantom or Solflare are worth less in dollar terms at $97 than they were at $250. But the network's growing stablecoin infrastructure means that USDC and USDT settlement on Solana is faster and cheaper than ever.
The trend toward stablecoin-based spending, where users hold and spend stable assets rather than volatile tokens, actually benefits from Solana's current trajectory. Sub-cent transaction fees make Solana one of the cheapest networks for card-linked crypto spending, and that cost advantage only widens as gas fees on Ethereum and its Layer-2s remain comparatively higher.
Key technical levels to monitor: the $95 support zone has been tested, and a confirmed break below would expose SOL to the $88 to $90 demand cluster. The 200-week simple moving average near $100 previously provided support in April 2025, and a decisive reclaim of the $119 pivot level would be the first signal of trend reversal.
FAQ
Why is SOL dropping while Solana activity is at record highs? The price decline reflects macro-driven institutional selling and broader crypto deleveraging, not network weakness. Fund outflows, declining open interest, and a hawkish Fed nominee are pressuring all altcoins. Solana's on-chain metrics (transactions, active addresses, stablecoin supply) remain at all-time highs, creating a stark divergence between price and fundamentals.
What does this mean for SOL holders? Short-term holders face continued downside risk if macro conditions worsen. Long-term holders are watching a network that has never been more active trade at 2026 lows. Standard Chartered projects a recovery to $250 by year-end, though that depends on broader market conditions improving.
Does the Solana stablecoin boom help SOL price? Not directly, since stablecoin activity generates transaction fees but does not require users to hold SOL. However, growing stablecoin usage validates Solana as payments infrastructure, which supports the long-term investment thesis.
Overview
Solana's SOL token broke below $100 in early February 2026, its lowest level in nine months, as $31.7 million fled SOL-focused funds amid broader institutional selling. Yet the network's on-chain activity has never been stronger: 2.2 billion weekly transactions, 16.7 million active addresses, and a stablecoin supply that tripled to $15.65 billion in just over a year. Standard Chartered cut its 2026 SOL target to $250 but raised its 2030 forecast to $2,000, betting on Solana's evolution into stablecoin micropayment infrastructure. The core tension remains whether record activity can convert into meaningful value capture for token holders.
